Declining Stock and Decent Financials: Is The Market Wrong About Matador Resources Company (NYSE:MTDR)?




  • In Business
  • 2022-05-12 17:15:55Z
  • By Simply Wall St.
 

Matador Resources (NYSE:MTDR) has had a rough month with its share price down 17%. However, the company's fundamentals look pretty decent, and long-term financials are usually aligned with future market price movements. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Matador Resources' ROE today.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors' money. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.

Check out our latest analysis for Matador Resources

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Matador Resources is:

34% = US$795m ÷ US$2.3b (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2022).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. So, this means that for every $1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of $0.34.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don't share these attributes.

Matador Resources' Earnings Growth And 34% ROE

To begin with, Matador Resources has a pretty high ROE which is interesting. Second, a comparison with the average ROE reported by the industry of 16% also doesn't go unnoticed by us. As you might expect, the 7.0% net income decline reported by Matador Resources doesn't bode well with us. We reckon that there could be some other factors at play here that are preventing the company's growth. These include low earnings retention or poor allocation of capital.

From the 7.0% decline reported by the industry in the same period, we infer that Matador Resources and its industry are both shrinking at a similar rate.

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. If you're wondering about Matador Resources''s valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.

Is Matador Resources Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

When we piece together Matador Resources' low three-year median payout ratio of 2.4% (where it is retaining 98% of its profits), calculated for the last three-year period, we are puzzled by the lack of growth. The low payout should mean that the company is retaining most of its earnings and consequently, should see some growth. So there could be some other explanations in that regard. For example, the company's business may be deteriorating.

Additionally, Matador Resources started paying a dividend only recently. So it looks like the management may have perceived that shareholders favor dividends even though earnings have been in decline. Based on the latest analysts' estimates, we found that the company's future payout ratio over the next three years is expected to hold steady at 2.5%. As a result, Matador Resources' ROE is not expected to change by much either, which we inferred from the analyst estimate of 29% for future ROE.

Conclusion

Overall, we feel that Matador Resources certainly does have some positive factors to consider. Although, we are disappointed to see a lack of growth in earnings even in spite of a high ROE and and a high reinvestment rate. We believe that there might be some outside factors that could be having a negative impact on the business. Moreover, after studying current analyst estimates, we discovered that the company's earnings are expected to continue to shrink in the future. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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