ITM Power Plc (LON:ITM), might not be a large cap stock, but it received a lot of attention from a substantial price movement on the AIM over the last few months, increasing to UK£3.79 at one point, and dropping to the lows of UK£1.73. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether ITM Power's current trading price of UK£1.81 reflective of the actual value of the small-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let's take a look at ITM Power's outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.
See our latest analysis for ITM Power
Is ITM Power still cheap?
The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to my valuation model. It's trading around 19.24% above my intrinsic value, which means if you buy ITM Power today, you'd be paying a relatively reasonable price for it. And if you believe that the stock is really worth £1.52, there's only an insignificant downside when the price falls to its real value. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because ITM Power's beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company's shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.
What kind of growth will ITM Power generate?
Future outlook is an important aspect when you're looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it's the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. However, with a negative profit growth of -4.9% expected over the next couple of years, near-term growth certainly doesn't appear to be a driver for a buy decision for ITM Power. This certainty tips the risk-return scale towards higher risk.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? ITM seems fairly priced right now, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to de-risk your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock beneficial for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on the stock, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you've been keeping an eye on ITM for a while, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. The stock appears to be trading at fair value, which means there's less benefit from mispricing. In addition to this, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven't considered today, which can help crystalize your views on ITM should the price fluctuate below its true value.
In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. You'd be interested to know, that we found 3 warning signs for ITM Power and you'll want to know about them.
If you are no longer interested in ITM Power, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.