ALEXANDRIA, Va. - This is a big weekend for Black voters in Virginia - and a big governor's election soon after.
On Saturday, Democratic voters will travel to Virginia Commonwealth University in Richmond to hear from a ground-breaking African-American leader: Former President Barack Obama.
On Sunday, thousands of worshipers at African American churches all over Virginia will see a video featuring the nation's most prominent current Black office-holder: Vice President Kamala Harris.
The venues are very different, but the Obama and Harris messages to African-American voters are the same: You need to get out and vote if Democrats are to win the governor's race in Virginia - not to mention key congressional races throughout the nation in 2022, which will determine control of Congress and the success or failure of the second half of Biden's presidency.
"Virginia, you have a lot of responsibility this year," Obama said in a video previewing his appearance on behalf of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe. "Not only are you choosing your next governor, but you're also making a statement about what direction we're headed in as a country."
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As McAuliffe battles Republican businessman Glenn Youngkin in a closer-than-expected race in Virginia, the Democratic campaign is engaged in a massive effort to amp up turnout among the party's most loyal members, African-Americans.
But political scientists note that McAuliffe will need to do more than the same campaigning he did during his first successful run for the governor's office back in 2013, when he won 90% of the Black vote.
"There's a number of years that have passed since Terry McAuliffe was the governor, and I think the political climate is different, especially with the movements towards social justice, Black Lives Matter," said Jatia Wrighten, an assistant professor of political science at VCU.
Wrighten points out that McAuliffe won the governorship eight years ago on the coattails of Obama's presidential reelection in 2012.
"The Black community was very much still excited about his [Obama's] second term win. And then you have McAuliffe coming in campaigning at the end of that year and then 2013. In many ways, I think McAuliffe didn't have to work very hard to gain the Black vote," Wrighten said. "A lot of Black voters were still very activated in terms of voting and paying attention to elections."
Road-testing for the 2022 midterms
In many ways, Virginia is a road-test for get-out-the vote programs Democrats will employ in 2022 as they try to keep control of Congress.
Elections experts already predict Republicans will take back the House based off of historical patterns and redestricting efforts. Democrats currently control the House by only eight votes, 220-212; the Senate is tied 50-50, with Harris breaking ties for the Democrats. Black voters could also make the difference in closely contested contested congressional elections in 2022.
Republican control of either chamber will likely thwart President Joe Biden's ability to pass any legacy-defining legislation in the second half of his presidency.
Democrats' plans include registration drives at colleges, ads on urban radio, a "Souls to the Polls" program involving Black churches and highly-publicized appearances by leaders like Obama.
High voter turnout among African-Americans is a must for Democrats if they are to win their third straight Virginia governor's race. Polls over the course of the campaign have given McAuliffe small leads over Youngkin, but the race has tightened in recent weeks.
A Monmouth University Poll released Wednesday showed a dead heat, 46% for each candidate; McAuliffe had 5-percentage-point leads in Monmouth polls in August and September.
Nadia Brown, a political scientist at Georgetown University, told USA TODAY if McAuliffe wants to mobilize Black voters, he'll need to focus more on the policies they care about. "The things that are really motivating people to either stay home or to go out is policy. It's not rhetoric," Brown said.
"I would say that Black folks are looking to see are real policies, but there are specific policies that Black folks care about repeatedly," Brown said. "Some of them are: decriminalizing marijuana and expunging people's records; there are criminal justice reform, equal access to affordable housing; climate change is an issue for Black people, particularly Black millennials and Gen Z's,"
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Apathy and anxiety
Democrats (and Republicans) enter the final days of the Virginia campaign with high anxiety about voter turnout among large groups of their constituents, analysts said, including among African-Americans.
Among the reasons: Voter burnout and the fact that Donald Trump - the combative former Republican president whose re-election bid triggered intense voter interest in 2020 - is no longer on the ballot.
Another possibility for low voter enthusiasm is that McAuliffe's victory in a Democratic primary this year prevented the party from choosing either Jennifer Carroll Foy or Jennifer McClellan as Virginia's first Black female major-party gubernatorial nominee.
A Black nominee would have injected more energy into the race, analysts said. Virginia Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax, the second Black person in the commonwealth to win statewide election, also lost out on winning the nomination.
"Terry McAuliffe in many ways is more of the same. You're looking at a white male who is older than 50, who knows how to raise money, who knows how to campaign," said Wrighten. "And it's really in terms of progression is exactly the opposite of this direction that Virginia is moving if you look at the current state legislature. The Virginia legislature is actually pretty progressive, especially in relation to historically where it's been."
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Voter apathy is a challenge in all Virginia governor's races, analysts said, because the state holds those races at an unusual time, one year after the previous presidential election. New Jersey is the only other state holding a governor's election this November.
Candidates in these states often have trouble reaching voters who are burned out after the presidential politics just a year before. Republican pollster Whit Ayres noted that "you don't have the advantage of a presidential race to drive voter turnout."
Trump and the stakes
This is especially true after 2020, when the prospect of Trump's re-election triggered heavy voter turnout, especially among Black voters who regarded him as a racist. Biden carried Virginia over Trump by 10 percentage points.
So far, at least, many African-Americans and other voters don't regard Youngkin as a Trump-like threat, and polls show a race within the margin of error.
"The loss of Donald Trump as a motivating factor is real," said Democratic political analyst Jamal Simmons.
That's complicating a race in a state that has trended Democratic over the last decade. Democrats have won two straight governor's races, including a win by McAuliffe himself in 2013.
Simmons said Democrats are trying to reach Black voters, and others, by stressing "what's at stake" in the election.
More: Can Republicans reclaim suburban voters turned off by Donald Trump?
More: Virginia governor's race: Terry McAuliffe, Glenn Youngkin argue about vaccination mandates
A Republican governor like Youngkin, McAuliffe and allies argue, would move to cut education and other vital programs, end abortion rights, support economic policies that favor the wealthy and push for new Trump-backed restrictions on voting by people of color.
McAuliffe "needs a good turnout, and for Democrats that means a good turnout of Blacks," said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center For Politics. "That's why they've scheduled so many big hitters the last two weeks."
In addition to high-powered surrogates like Obama and Harris, McAuliffe and the Democrats are trying to reach African-American voters via interviews on urban and gospel radio stations as well as nationally syndicated shows. The campaign and the organization People For The American Way have partnered on a series of radio ads aimed at Black voters.
They're holding voter registration and balloting drives in Black neighborhoods throughout the state. Another focus is historically Black colleges and universities like Hampton and Norfolk State.
McAuliffe has also visited more than 60 Black churches during the campaign.
Rev. H. Patrick Cason leads Bethany Baptist Church in Chesapeake, one of the places of worship McAuliffe has visited in the past several weeks.He told USA TODAY McAuliffe is not a stranger to his congregants.
"Terry McAuliffe actually has a great history here at Bethany Baptist Church," Cason said. "They were actually happy to see him ... because they understand really what he did for a lot of the population."
'Souls To The Polls'
McAuliffe's work on restoring rights to ex-felons was an advantage to members of the church, who have spent the last 30 years working with the courts and helping members of their community land on their feet after leaving penitentiary. (McAuliffe touted his record of restoring voting rights to more than 173,000 Virginians during a Democratic primary debate in June.)
Cason did note that he has not received communication from Republicans on speaking at his church.
"I've never received a phone call - and I've been pastoring for 10 years, five years at this particular church, five years in another church - from any Republican representation that wanted to come and speak to the Black church," he said. "There has been no extension towards the Black church in my community."
Churches are a focal point of a get-out-the-vote program called "Souls To The Polls," designed to take advantage of a new development in Virginia election law: Early voting can now be done on Sundays.
"This is the first year that you can vote on Sunday," Harris says on the video that played in Black churches last weekend and will be repeated on Sunday. "So, please, vote after today's service."
During a tour last Sunday in Norfolk, former Georgia lawmaker and gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams told Black Virginians that "what you say in 2021 will show the world who we are in 2022 and 2024 and beyond."
Candidates have to close the deal
No one doubts that McAuliffe will get the vast majority of Black voters in Virginia. Political scientists note Black voters are pragmatic and often vote for the person who will do the least amount of harm to their community.
The question is how many African-American voters will cast ballots, and will they be enough to offset Youngkin's expected advantage among white voters in the state. Youngkin and the Republicans are also looking for more Black votes, a long-time party project.
During his campaign, Youngkin has argued that his education and economic development plans will benefit Black Virginians in particular. He said McAuliffe failed African-Americans during his term as governor and faulted his Democratic foe for association with current Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam, who nearly lost his job after the surfacing of college photos of men in blackface.
Obama's get-out-the-vote visit shows that McAuliffe "is scared" and realizes that voters will reject his plans for education, law enforcement, and vaccine mandates, said Youngkin spokesperson Macaulay Porter.
"Terry McAuliffe failed to deliver for the Black community as governor - losing their support - and now he is desperately trying to regain their trust," she said.
Throughout the campaign, McAuliffe has stressed his first-term economic record and said he would continue to represent the interests of African-Americans and other people of color.
"Terry McAuliffe is running for governor to rebuild a stronger economy that creates good-paying jobs and invests in education, and he is the only one in this race who has a strong record of lifting up Black Virginians," McAuliffe spokesperson Renzo Olivari told USA TODAY. "Hundreds of thousands of Virginians have voted so far, and we expect to see record turnout among Black Virginians for an off-cycle campaign this year."
During last year's presidential election, Trump actually increased the GOP share of the African-American vote nationwide to 12%, up from the 8% he got in the 2016 election, according to exit polls. The increase was less pronounced in Virginia, where Trump won 10% of the Black vote last year, according to exit polls; five years ago, that figure was 9%.
In the last Virginia governor's race in 2017, Northam won 87% of the Black vote to Republican Ed Gillespie's 12%. African-Americans made up 20% of the electorate, a number the Democrats will probably need to match this time around.
Political celebrities like Obama and Harris can only do so much to help McAuliffe, analysts said. Registration drives and radio ads also have their limits.
In the end, they said, the candidate himself has to inspire African-Americans (and others) to the polls.
Said Simmons: "Terry McAuliffe has to close the deal."
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Virginia governor's race: Barack Obama, VP Harris prod Black voters