What does FiveThirtyEight say about Ohio State's chances of making the College Football Playoff




 

For the first time all college football season, Ohio State is on the outside looking in when it comes to being ranked in the top four of the College Football Playoff rankings. But it's close. The Buckeyes sit at No. 5, just one spot behind a one-loss USC team that has another game to play when it takes on Utah in the Pac-12 Championship game.

Besides that, TCU sits at No. 3 and also has to win one more game against a Kansas State team that gave the Horned Frogs all they could handle in October. The winner will be crowned Big 12 champ. For both USC and TCU, a loss would mean the résumés will be compared against Ohio State's with a razor-thin margin.

With these sorts of things, we often like to confer with the popular analytics website, FiveThirtyEight, to see what their playoff model thinks Ohio State's chances of making the College Football Playoff are.

At this point, the number of teams still alive has been pared down to five, really, with a very, very outside shot of including Alabama as a sixth team, but that cream-and-crimson ship has likely sailed with the Tide being a two-loss team without a conference championship.

There aren't a ton of variables in this thing, but here is what FiveThirtyEight says about Ohio State's chances of making the CFP when looking at a few possible results.

First, we'll deal with just the top six teams' straight percentage chances of getting in without taking anything else into consideration.

NEXT … Chances of top teams making the College Football Playoff

No. 6 - Alabama Crimson Tide (10-2)

 

Oct 8, 2022; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban reacts during the second half against the Texas A&M Aggies at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

9% ()

Chances if win out

N/A

No. 5 - Ohio State (11-1)

 

Nov 26, 2022; Columbus, OH, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) waits to hike the ball against Michigan Wolverines in the fourth quarter of their game at Ohio Stadium. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

32% ()

Chances if win out

N/A

No. 4 - USC Trojans (11-1)

 

Nov 26, 2022; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans running back Raleek Brown (14) celebrates with quarterback Caleb Williams (13) after rushing for a touchdown against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the second half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

47% ()

Chances if win out

98%

No. 3 - TCU Horned Frogs (12-0)

 

Nov 19, 2022; Waco, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs place kicker Griffin Kell (39) and his teammates celebrate the victory over the Baylor Bears after Kell kicks the game-winning field goal against the Bears as time expires at McLane Stadium. Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

70% ()

Chances if win out

>99%

No. 2 - Georgia Bulldogs (12-0)

 

Nov 19, 2022; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Georgia Bulldogs defensive back Kelee Ringo (5) and defensive back Malaki Starks (24) celebrate during the second quarter against the Kentucky Wildcats at Kroger Field. Credit: Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

92% ()

Chances if win out

>99%

No. 1 - Michigan Wolverines (12-0)

 

Nov 26, 2022; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Michigan Wolverines running back Donovan Edwards (7) rushes in the second half against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium. Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

96% ()

Chances if win out

>99%

Now, all of that is fine and good, but what happens when one or more of the teams above Ohio State lose in their respective conference championship games? As you can see below, Michigan and Georgia are pretty much locked in no matter what happens. But, if TCU or USC lose, well - then it opens the door a little more for the Buckeyes.

NEXT … Model changes with one or more of the top teams losing in their conference championship games.

If Michigan loses to Purdue in the Big Ten Championship game

 

Michigan Wolverines kicker Jake Moody (13) celebrates with tight end Joel Honigford and other teammates after Moody kicked the winning field goal against Illinois to seal a 19-17 win at Michigan Stadium, Saturday, Nov. 19, 2022. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Updated Playoff Chances

Michigan | 67%
Georgia | 93%
TCU | 70%
USC | 46%
Ohio State | 39%
Alabama | 15%

 

If Georgia loses to LSU in the SEC Championship game

 

Nov 12, 2022; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Georgia Bulldogs tight end Brock Bowers (19) celebrates with running back Kendall Milton (2) after a touchdown against the Mississippi State Bulldogs during the first quarter at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports

Updated Playoff Chances

Michigan | 96%
Georgia | 64%
TCU | 71%
USC | 48%
Ohio State | 42%
Alabama | 8%

If TCU loses to Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship game

 

Nov 26, 2022; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Max Duggan (15) points at his receiver after throwing a touchdown pass against the Iowa State Cyclones during the second half at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Credit: Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports

Updated Playoff Chances

Michigan | 96%
Georgia | 93%
TCU | 31%
USC | 47%
Ohio State | 38%
Alabama | 14%

 

If USC loses to Utah in the Pac-12 Championship game

 

Nov 5, 2022; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) scrambles against California Golden Bears linebacker Henry Ikahihifo (16) during the second quarter at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports

Updated Playoff Chances

Michigan | 97%
Georgia | 94%
TCU | 74%
USC | <1%
Ohio State | 45%
Alabama | 13%

If TCU and USC both lose

 

Nov 26, 2022; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Max Duggan (15) points at his receiver after throwing a touchdown pass against the Iowa State Cyclones during the second half at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Credit: Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports

Updated Playoff Chances

Michigan | 97%
Georgia | 93%
TCU | 38%
USC | <1%
Ohio State | 46%
Alabama | 19%

This would be the best-case scenario for Ohio State, but there are no guarantees in any of this when you're talking about what the CFP committee will do. You can play around with the model yourself by heading over to FiveThirtyEight for different scenarios, but if you're looking for what will get the Buckeyes in, we've covered what is most likely. Of course, this is all predicated on your faith in what FiveThirtyEight uses for all of this, but either way, it's fun to think about, and at least there's a chance still.

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Story originally appeared on Buckeye Wire

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